Monday Meditations - Reading the Tea Leaves

Venture asks you to believe in the growth and durability of a business long before the evidence is obvious. At the early stages, that belief is a discipline. The feedback loops are slow. The outcomes are far away. The work happens "in the waiting" so to speak.

Most of the indicators we lean on are noisy. Markups point to direction but not certainty. Plenty of companies carry high valuations right up until the moment they don't. And some of the eventual outliers barely move at all until one day they do.

So how do you get better at reading what matters? How do you know when things are going well? How do you know when it is time to adjust? These questions sit at the center of early stage venture. They also keep most people up at night.

I have found a few things that help.

Pay attention to how founders make decisions. Not the big decisions but the everyday ones. You learn a lot watching how someone manages the messy middle. You learn even more seeing how they respond when something breaks.

Watch the pace of learning. Early companies that eventually work widen their understanding of the market every week. They run small experiments. They stop doing things that are not working. They compound insight.

And look at the talent they attract. This is one of the clearest early signals. Great people have options. They have instincts. They do quiet diligence. When strong operators choose to follow a founder before the story is fully written, that tells you something real about the quality of leadership, the clarity of mission, and the trust the founder inspires. Teams like that tend to move faster and recover quicker when they miss.

Also look for progress that comes from execution, not from outside validation. This takes time to learn. But when a team is building momentum inside the four walls of the business, you can feel it. It shows up in product quality. It shows up in how customers talk about them. It even shows up in the founder's energy when they are tired.

And finally, stay self-aware. Early stage investing demands a tolerance for ambiguity. The feedback loops are long. You go months or years without knowing if you are right. Doubt creeps in. Confidence wavers. The goal is not to eliminate either. The goal is to recognize when doubt is useful and when it is just noise from waiting too long for answers.

Confidence grows when you train your eye on the signals that matter. When you stay honest about the ones you overvalue. When you invest with intention rather than reaction. If you can do that, you start to know whether you are on the right track long before the market tells you.

That is the quiet skill at the center of this job. And like most things in venture, it only improves with practice.